Sovereign Capability Profiles ⓘ
Sovereign Capability Profiles
Seven-dimension framework assessing each actor's sovereign control across the AI infrastructure stack. Actors are designated as PAA (ecosystem anchor), AIK (structural chokepoint), ACS (significant but dependent capabilities), or Participant based on capability breadth, ecosystem independence, and platform sustainability.
§ View in Methodology →

Actor Designation Framework — 20 actors assessed · 42 dimensions met · 115 Capability Linksⓘ across 26 met dimensions

Last Verifiedⓘ6 May 2026

Last Updatedⓘ10 September 2026

Document IDWEO-SCP-001

StatusLiving Register

Chip2Fab5Equip8Compute3Models2Reg8Invest13ⓘEIAGW · 2024

Principal AI Actors (2)

United States7/71,284GW4,520TWh▼

AI Chip DesignMet

Three independent training-class accelerator programmes — NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra, AMD Instinct, Trainium — under US IP control

▸ Qualification

NVIDIA Data Centre compute revenue reached US$43.0 billion (Q3 FY2026, up 56%) with Blackwell Ultra as leading architecture. Amazon deployed 1.4 million Trainium chips; combined custom silicon revenue exceeds US$10 billion annually. AMD ships the Instinct MI series. No other jurisdiction hosts more than one competitive programme.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 2NVIDIA (SEC 10-Q Q3 FY2026) · 2025-Q3 ↗
Data Centre compute revenue $43.0 billion, up 56%. Blackwell Ultra leading architecture across all customer categories.

Corroborating Grade 2Amazon (SEC 8-K FY2025 Q4) · 2025-Q4 ↗
Trainium fully subscribed with 1.4 million chips landed across all generations. Combined custom silicon annual revenue run rate over US$10 billion (Trainium, Graviton, Nitro).

Advanced FabricationMet

Intel Fab 52 manufactures Intel 18A wafers and TSMC Arizona is in volume production, both operating on US territory

▸ Qualification

Intel's Fab 52 is fully operational producing Intel 18A wafers — the most advanced logic process manufactured in the United States at time of assessment. TSMC's Arizona facility entered volume production in late 2024. Both sites operate on US soil under territorial jurisdiction regardless of corporate parent.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 2Intel (SEC 8-K Q3 FY2025) · 2025-Q3 ↗
Fab 52 fully operational, manufacturing Intel 18A wafers — most advanced logic wafers produced in the United States at time of assessment.

Corroborating Grade 2TSMC · 2025-03 ↗
TSMC Arizona site in volume production since late 2024.

Critical EquipmentMet

KLA holds 73.8% of the global metrology and inspection market, described as indispensable to advanced process control

▸ Qualification

KLA increased its metrology and inspection market share from 72.6% in 2024 to 73.8% in 2025. Applied Materials and Lam Research hold dominant positions in deposition and etch respectively. No advanced fabrication facility at any node operates without US-designed process control equipment.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 3247 Wall St citing SEMI · 2026-05 ↗
KLA increased metrology and inspection share from 72.6% in 2024 to 73.8% in 2025.

Corroborating Grade 2KLA 2026 Investor Day · 2026-03 ↗
CEO: KLA is indispensable to advanced process control regardless of fab operator.

AI ComputeMet

xAI Colossus comprises 100,000 GPUs expanded to 555,000 at 2 GW; multiple US hyperscalers train frontier models on US territory

▸ Qualification

xAI's Colossus cluster operates 100,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs, built in 122 days, and expanded to 555,000 GPUs at 2 GW capacity. Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI all occupy the top tier on Arena Elo rankings. US territory hosts the largest concentration of frontier-class AI training infrastructure globally at time of assessment.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 2NVIDIA Newsroom (Colossus/Spectrum-X) · 2026-01 ↗
xAI Colossus: 100,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs, built in 122 days. Expanded to 555,000 GPUs at 2 GW.

Corroborating Grade 3Stanford HAI AI Index 2026 · 2026 ↗
Anthropic, xAI, Google, OpenAI all occupy the top tier on Arena Elo.

Frontier ModelsMet

Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI all occupy the top benchmark tier; no other jurisdiction hosts four frontier labs

▸ Qualification

Stanford HAI's 2026 AI Index confirms Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI in the top Arena Elo tier. Frontier models gained 30 percentage points on Humanity's Last Exam in a single year. Multiple US-headquartered organisations hold frontier positions across reasoning, coding, and knowledge benchmarks.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 3Stanford HAI AI Index 2026 · 2026 ↗
Frontier models gained 30 percentage points in a single year on Humanity's Last Exam.

Corroborating Grade 3Artificial Analysis / LMArena · 2026-05 ↗
Multiple US-headquartered models (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI) at global frontier across reasoning, coding, and knowledge benchmarks.

AI RegulationMet

Export controls enforced extraterritorially — Operation Gatekeeper prosecuted US$160 million GPU smuggling conspiracy

▸ Qualification

The Department of Justice prosecuted conspiracy to export at least US$160 million in controlled GPUs destined for China. Operation Gatekeeper seized over US$50 million in NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs and obtained guilty pleas, demonstrating active extraterritorial enforcement of AI-relevant export control instruments.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 1US Department of Justice · 2025-11 ↗
Prosecution for conspiracy to violate export controls by illegally exporting advanced GPUs to the PRC.

Corroborating Grade 1US Department of Justice (Operation Gatekeeper) · 2025-12 ↗
Conspiracy to export at least US$160 million in export-controlled NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs. Over US$50 million seized. Guilty pleas obtained.

Sovereign InvestmentMet

CHIPS for America awarded over US$33 billion in fabrication incentives; Intel alone received US$5.7 billion

▸ Qualification

The CHIPS for America programme awarded over US$33 billion of the US$36 billion in proposed incentives, directed at semiconductor fabrication on US territory. Intel received US$5.695 billion in CHIPS incentives and issued equity instruments. The programme is the largest single sovereign investment in domestic semiconductor manufacturing at time of assessment.

ⓘ Sources

Primary Grade 1US Department of Commerce (CHIPS for America) · 2025-01 ↗
CHIPS for America awarded over $33 billion of the over $36 billion in proposed incentives funding.

Corroborating Grade 2Intel (SEC 8-K) · 2025-08-27 ↗
Intel received $5.695 billion in CHIPS incentives; issued 274.6M shares of common stock and a warrant.

Severance: All 7 dimensions sustainable under severance. Full-stack ecosystem anchor.

China6/73,377GW10,578TWh▼

AI Chip DesignMet

Huawei's Ascend 910B/910C — domestically designed training-class AI accelerator under Chinese IP control, with SOE deployment at national scale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationMet

SMIC produces 7nm-class wafers using multi-patterning DUV lithography; DUV-only fabrication with no EUV access

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: No Chinese tool globally non-substitutable at ≤7nm; all functions replaceable by US/Japan/Netherlands alternatives

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeMet

Frontier training on Chinese territory via Ascend clusters and pre-restriction NVIDIA H800; Ascend performance gap persists

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsMet

Alibaba and DeepSeek place in the top Arena Elo tier alongside US frontier labs across multiple capability domains

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

Article 49 extends jurisdiction to transfers outside China; REE extraterritorial controls exercised then suspended

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

Big Fund III raised RMB 344 billion (US$47.5 billion) from 19 state-backed investors for semiconductor development

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

🔒 Severance analysis (subscriber access)

Ecosystem anchors

AI Infrastructure Keystones (3)

Japan4/7353GW1,030TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Only domestic training accelerator (PFN MN-Core 2) deployed in low thousands; Japan's own flagship HPC selects NVIDIA for AI workloads

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Zero ≤7nm fabs in volume manufacturing; Rapidus 2nm in pilot only, mass production targeted H2 FY2027

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

TEL holds ~100% EUV coater/developer share and Lasertec sole-sources actinic mask inspection; US-dependency exposure documented

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeMet

SoftBank cluster delivers 13.7 ExaFLOPS on Japanese territory; domestically scaled but GPU procurement dependent on US ecosystem

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: No Japanese-developed model places in the global top tier on any canonical discriminating benchmark

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

FEFTA controls 23 types of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment; catch-all controls strengthened October 2025

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

Japan's FY2026 semiconductor-and-AI budget nearly quadrupled to approximately ¥1.23 trillion; separately, cumulative state R&D backing for Rapidus reached ¥2.35 trillion

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Chokepoint Profile

Front-end process tools and materials

TEL coater/developer (~90–100% EUV), Lasertec actinic mask inspection (100%), SCREEN single-wafer cleans, Shin-Etsu/JSR/TOK/SUMCO materials

🔒 Severance analysis (subscriber access)

South Korea4/7160GW625TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: All shipping Korean-designed accelerators are inference-only; training compute runs on imported NVIDIA silicon

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationMet

Samsung Foundry produces at 3nm and commenced 2nm GAA mass production; fabrication dependent on imported ASML EUV equipment

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

HPSP is sole-source for high-pressure annealing and Hanmi holds 71.2% TC bonder share; FDPR and BIS exposure documented

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Largest coherent Korean-owned training cluster is ~4,000 GPUs; major facilities are US-hyperscaler-anchored

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Best Korean models score ~25-30 points below frontier flagships on aggregated capability leaderboards

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

AI Basic Act (Law 20676) Article 4(1) applies to acts conducted abroad affecting the Korean domestic market or users

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

KRW 10.1 trillion allocated in the 2026 AI budget; AI Growth Fund expanded to over KRW 150 trillion

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Chokepoint Profile

Memory packaging, fabrication, and sovereign equipment monopolies

HPSP sole-source high-pressure annealing, Hanmi 71.2% TC bonder share, Samsung Foundry 2nm GAA HVM

🔒 Severance analysis (subscriber access)

Netherlands3/762GW135TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Dutch chip designers (NXP, Axelera) produce inference/edge silicon only; no training-class accelerator exists

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No ≤7nm fab on Dutch territory; NXP Nijmegen operates at 200mm (~140nm), slated for closure

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

ASML holds 100% EUV monopoly and Besi leads hybrid bonding from Dutch territory; Cymer and multiple US leverage vectors documented

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Nebius Group N.V. Dutch-domiciled; zero qualifying compute on Dutch territory (all operational in Finland)

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: GPT-NL targets Dutch-language sovereignty at ~1/100th frontier budget; no Dutch model ranks on global benchmarks

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

Strategic Goods Decree expanded semiconductor equipment export controls with national authorisation requirements

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

Project Beethoven committed €2.51 billion to the Brainport Eindhoven chip ecosystem; AI Factory received €200 million

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Chokepoint Profile

Core lithography integration and advanced packaging

ASML 100% EUV monopoly, ASM International (ALD/epi), Besi (hybrid bonding)

🔒 Severance analysis (subscriber access)

Advanced Capability States (2)

European Union4/71,208GW2,791TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: No EU entity designs a datacenter training accelerator; closest candidate (SiPearl Rhea1) is an HPC CPU for inference

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationMet

Intel Fab 34 in Ireland is the first European facility using EUV in volume production; the facility is US-owned

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

ASML shipped 44 EUV systems as sole global supplier; Zeiss holds 100% EUV optics share — Cymer light source under US jurisdiction

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Largest EU-controlled coherent training cluster is ~1,016 H100s; frontier training requires 50,000-200,000+

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Mistral's best model scores 39/100 on composite intelligence index; frontier models score 57-61

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

EU AI Act Article 2(1)(c) applies to providers placing AI systems on the EU market regardless of establishment location

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

EuroHPC mandate expanded with AI Gigafactories programme; JUPITER operational at exascale, LUMI at pre-exascale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

🔒 Severance analysis (subscriber access)

Taiwan3/767GW289TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Taiwan's ASIC design firms execute foreign clients' architectures; core accelerator IP remains abroad

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationMet

TSMC operates 3nm volume production at Fab 18 with N2 GAA on roadmap; fabrication dependent on US-origin equipment and EDA tools

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

Gudeng Precision holds approximately 80% of the global EUV photomask pod market and is sole supplier to TSMC

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Aggregate national compute (~114 PFLOPS) is roughly two orders of magnitude below frontier-training scale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: All domestic models are foreign-base fine-tunes; none rank on any global benchmark leaderboard

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: Export controls bind domestic exporters only; AI Basic Act is soft law with no extraterritorial reach

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

NT$30–31.1 billion first-year AI strategy allocation under NSTC; compute procures NVIDIA GPUs

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

🔒 Severance analysis (subscriber access)

▶ 13 Participants

France2/7161GW570TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: All French AI chip designs use licensed ARM architecture; no sovereign training-class accelerator exists

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Most advanced French volume node is 18nm FD-SOI; no FinFET or GAA fab exists at any node

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: Soitec's SOI substrates serve 22-90nm nodes, not ≤7nm FinFET/GAA process flows

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Largest sovereign cluster (Mistral Compute, ~13,800 GB300s) operational since mid-2026; sustained frontier-class training not yet documented

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Mistral scores ~35% below frontier on aggregate intelligence indices across key benchmarks

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

Exercises EU AI Act authority with demonstrated extraterritorial enforcement — CNIL fined Clearview AI €20 million

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

France 2030 provides a €54 billion investment envelope; national AI strategy spending totals €2.4 billion across two phases

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Germany2/7287GW500TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: No German entity designs or markets a datacenter AI training accelerator; full NVIDIA dependency for all sovereign compute

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No fab on German territory produces at ≤7nm; Intel Magdeburg cancelled, ESMC Dresden targets ≥12nm only

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

Zeiss holds 100% EUV optics share and TRUMPF sole-sources EUV drive lasers; leverage operates through ASML, not independently

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Largest German-controlled AI cluster (~10,000 GPUs / 0.5 ExaFLOPS) is ~1/10th frontier training scale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: No German-controlled entity produces a top-tier foundation model; Aleph Alpha absorbed by Canadian Cohere (90/10 split)

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationMet

21st AWV amendment added AI systems and semiconductor technology to the national export control list in July 2024

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: JUPITER is genuine (~€250M national share) but not 'at scale'; collapsed Intel subsidy and foreign-controlled ESMC subsidy cannot be credited

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

India1/7531GW2,082TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: No commercially marketed datacenter AI training accelerator with domestically controlled core microarchitectural IP

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No ≤7nm wafer fab on Indian territory; most advanced approved project (Tata Dholera) targets 28nm-110nm

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: No Indian sole-source position in the ≤7nm semiconductor equipment supply chain

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Largest sovereign compute allocation (4,096 H100s, IndiaAI Mission) empirically exercised; produced sub-frontier result

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Sole candidate (Sarvam-105B) confirmed sub-frontier under independent evaluation, August 2026

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: No AI-specific statute in force; DPDPA core obligations delayed to May 2027; IT Rules 2026 limited to content moderation

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

IndiaAI Mission budgets Rs 10,372 crore across seven pillars with a 10,000 GPU target; compute runs on US ecosystem infrastructure

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Israel1/724GW82TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Habana Labs/Gaudi IP wholly owned by Intel US; no independent Israeli training-class accelerator programme remains

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Fab 28 runs Intel 7 (10nm-class DUV, no EUV); Fab 38 frozen since mid-2024 with no restart date

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentMet

Nova holds sole-source metrology and Camtek is tool of reference for HBM4; limited to inspection, US-parented entities excluded

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Largest Israeli-controlled GPU clusters are an order of magnitude below frontier training scale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: AI21 Jamba scores 40-50 percentage points behind frontier benchmarks; company has pivoted away from scale competition

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: No enacted AI-specific law with extraterritorial reach; existing controls are privacy-based or dual-use export

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: ~$140M deployed AI-specific capital over six years; roughly two orders of magnitude below peer programmes

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Malaysia1/739GW201TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Domestic chip design is interface IP and custom ASICs, not merchant training-class AI accelerators

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Domestic fabrication is 200 mm at 90 nm; Malaysia's role is back-end assembly, not leading-edge production

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: Equipment makers in Malaysia are foreign-headquartered (Lam, ASML); no domestically-controlled advanced-equipment capability exists

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Operational AI compute is a 20-megawatt facility; no frontier-scale training runs at the assessment date

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Domestic models lead only the self-built MalayMMLU benchmark; none ranks top-tier on broadly-recognised leaderboards

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: A territorial chip-transit control that adopts United States export-regulation scope, without independent extraterritorial enforcement reach

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

Budget 2026, enacted as Supply Act 2026, directs sovereign capital to a national AI and semiconductor programme

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Saudi Arabia1/7121GW2024455TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: No Saudi accelerator designer; the sole Riyadh design centre is Qualcomm's, and the sovereign chip programme was abandoned in 2026

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No fabrication at any node on Saudi territory; the Alat chip programme was abandoned in 2026

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: No Saudi-headquartered advanced-equipment maker; EUV is ASML-only and the major equipment is US, Dutch or Japanese

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: On-territory frontier-scale compute is under construction, not live; the operational clusters are academic HPC or inference-only

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: ALLaM is Saudi-controlled but Arabic-specialist — it tops an Arabic-only leaderboard, not top-tier across three general domains

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: No AI framework with extraterritorial reach; AI governance is non-binding and territorial, the draft Global AI Hub Law unenacted

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

Through HUMAIN, the Public Investment Fund directs sovereign capital into AI compute and infrastructure at nationally transformative scale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Singapore1/713GW60TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: No Singapore-domiciled designer of training-class AI accelerators; domestic AI-silicon is edge-focused

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Domestic fabrication is mature- and specialty-node; no leading-edge production, new capacity not operational until 2028

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: Front-end equipment is a foreign oligopoly; Singapore's capability is back-end assembly and consumables, not advanced tools

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: On-territory training is sub-frontier (72 H100s); the frontier-scale build is sited off-territory in Johor

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Domestic models lead Southeast-Asian-language tasks on a foreign base; none ranks top-tier on general leaderboards

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: Voluntary soft-law AI governance; export controls bind domestically only, no extraterritorial reach

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

Budget 2024 directs sovereign capital to a national AI programme, with a ring-fenced commitment to high-performance compute

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

United Kingdom1/7115GW292TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Sole UK AI accelerator designer (Graphcore) acquired by SoftBank July 2024; no IP-transfer restrictions imposed

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No UK fab operates at or below 7nm; domestic capacity limited to mature and compound semiconductor nodes

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: UK equipment firms serve advanced fabs but none is sole-sourced for ≤7nm lithographic fabrication

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: No UK-HQ provider operates frontier-training-class compute on UK soil; Nscale flagship facility grid-energisation-dependent, 2027+

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: DeepMind IP owned by Alphabet (US); no independent UK lab ranks top-tier across broad reasoning benchmarks

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: No AI-specific binding framework enacted; AISI evaluations voluntary; anticipated UK AI bill did not materialise

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentMet

UK Compute Roadmap commits up to £2 billion for public AI compute infrastructure, confirmed by Parliament

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Brazil0/7265GW752TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Domestic semiconductor activity is chip design and packaging, not training-accelerator design; no domestically-controlled accelerator designer

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No sub-7 nm fabrication on Brazilian territory; the only foundry (CEITEC) tops out at 350 nm

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: No domestic advanced-equipment maker; the category is foreign-held (ASML, US, Japan), Brazil's footprint is design and packaging

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Santos Dumont is a sub-frontier research HPC; the transformative buildout (Piauí) is foreign-operated and unbuilt

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Sovereign, territorially-controlled model IP (Sabiá, SoberanIA), but sub-frontier and specialised to Brazilian-Portuguese domains

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: PL 2338 is unenacted and domestic-territorial, with no extraterritorial-scope provision; no demonstrated reach beyond Brazil

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: A genuine R$23 billion plan, but mostly credit and private/foreign-operated capital; the sovereign AI compute is research-grade, not transformative

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Canada0/7162GW652TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Tenstorrent redomiciled to Delaware 2023; no Canadian-controlled accelerator in volume production

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Zero front-end logic fabs at ≤7nm on Canadian territory; ecosystem is packaging and specialty nodes

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: US-parented entity (Teledyne Technologies); pellicle manufacturing credits to parent jurisdiction

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: No Canadian-HQ entity operates GPU clusters at frontier-training scale; all hyperscalers US-controlled

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Cohere ranks decisively second-tier on flagship cross-domain benchmarks (GPQA, Arena, SWE-bench)

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: AIDA died on the order paper January 2025; ECL export controls bind Canadian exporters only, no extraterritorial reach

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: ~CAD $2.9B over five years (~0.02% GDP/yr); flagship SCIP supercomputer not yet operational

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Russia0/7300GW1,193TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: No domestically designed training-class accelerator in production; ARM/MIPS licenses revoked, foundry access severed

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: Most advanced operational node is 90nm at Mikron; state roadmap targets 28nm no earlier than 2028-2030

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: Best domestic lithography tool operates at 350nm on 200mm wafers; no global supply role

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: Total national AI compute 0.073 exaflops; largest cluster ~1,600 A100 nodes

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Flagship LLMs trail frontier by 34-55% on key benchmarks; two of three built on Chinese Qwen base weights

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: No enacted AI-specific extraterritorial framework; enforcement model produces market exit, not foreign compliance

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: Executed federal AI spending ~$80-90M/year; announced budgets systematically revised downward 5-20×

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Switzerland0/729GW65TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: STMicroelectronics is foreign-incorporated and below leading-edge; indigenous ventures build design-automation tools, not training accelerators

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No sub-7 nm fabrication on Swiss territory; the most advanced Swiss-linked fabrication is located in France and Italy

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: Swiss advanced-equipment makers (VAT, Comet) are market-leading but substitutable, not sole sources of any sub-7 nm-essential component

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: The one frontier-scale system (Alps) is research-only; the commercially available platforms are well below frontier scale

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: A sovereign, fully-open model (Apertus-70B) with Swiss-controlled IP, but sub-frontier in capability and not top-tier on broad leaderboards

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: AI governance is sector-specific and applies primarily to state actors; extraterritorial reach is confined to general data protection, not AI

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: A discrete CHF 20 million grant (CHF 5 million in 2026), not a structural reorientation; no national AI programme

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

United Arab Emirates0/746GW2024177TWh▼

AI Chip DesignNot Met

Constraint: Domestic chip activity is inference- or design-only with foreign IP; no UAE merchant training-class accelerator

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Advanced FabricationNot Met

Constraint: No operational leading-edge (sub-7nm) fabrication; the UAE is import-dependent, prospective foreign fabs at feasibility stage

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Critical EquipmentNot Met

Constraint: No UAE-headquartered advanced-equipment maker; the UAE procures foreign chips as a capital provider, EUV supplied solely by ASML

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI ComputeNot Met

Constraint: On-territory compute is sub-frontier; the flagship cluster is pre-operational and foreign-operated, frontier-scale G42 compute US-sited

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Frontier ModelsNot Met

Constraint: Domestically directed models, not top-tier; K2 Think V2 leads competition maths but trails on knowledge benchmarks

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

AI RegulationNot Met

Constraint: No AI-specific extraterritorial authority; the extraterritorial instruments are child-safety and data-protection regimes, with no cross-border AI enforcement

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Sovereign InvestmentNot Met

Constraint: Sovereign vehicles direct capital abroad; the on-territory AI campus is built by Royal Group-controlled G42 and operated by US firms

🔒 Sources (subscriber access)

Dimension Watch

Dimensions approaching a status change at the next assessment cycle.

Actor	Dimension	Current	Potential	Trigger	Timeline
GB	AI Compute	NOT MET	Possible MET	Nscale Loughton cluster operational (grid energisation unresolved)	2027+, energisation-dependent
FR	AI Compute	NOT MET	Possible MET	Mistral Compute sustained frontier-class training runs	Q3 2026–2027
FR	Frontier Models	NOT MET	Possible MET	Mistral release closing approximately 35% frontier gap	Unknown
KR	AI Compute	NOT MET	Possible MET	Sovereign compute exceeding 50,000 GPUs	2028–2030
IN	AI Compute	NOT MET	Possible MET	Sovereign compute consolidation exceeding 50,000 GPUs	2027–2028
DE	Sovereign Investment	NOT MET	Possible MET	Transformative federal appropriation (EU AI Gigafactory national contribution and successor programmes)	End-2027+
IL	Sovereign Investment	NOT MET	Possible MET	National AI Program (Government Decision 4255) appropriated at nationally transformative scale	2027+, post-election budget dependent
CA	Frontier Models	NOT MET	Possible shift	Cohere–Aleph Alpha merger closes and combined capability assessed	Late 2026
CA	Sovereign Investment	NOT MET	Possible MET	SCIP operational and Budget 2026 scales commitment	2027–2028
SA	AI Compute	NOT MET	Possible MET	HUMAIN Riyadh or Dammam campus operational at frontier-training scale	H2 2026–2027
UAE	AI Compute	NOT MET	Possible MET	Stargate UAE Phase 1 (200MW) operational	H2 2026–2027
UAE	Sovereign Investment	NOT MET	Possible MET	Sovereign instrument appropriating public capital to Emirati-operated AI infrastructure	Dependent on Stargate UAE operating arrangements and any AIATC appropriation

Actor codes follow ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 (EU denotes the European Union; the United Arab Emirates is shown as UAE for readability).

Dimension Watch Log

A dated record of every change to the Dimension Watch. Each watch entry is registered before its outcome is known; when a trigger resolves, materialises, or is revised, the change is recorded here with its previous and current state. Retired entries leave the table above and remain in this log permanently.

▶ 10 September 2026 — 1 change

10 September 2026

AddedUnited Arab Emirates · Sovereign Investment — Dimension 7 re-examined: the sovereign vehicle MGX deploys public capital into United States data centres and laboratories, while the on-territory 1-gigawatt Stargate UAE cluster is built by Royal Group-controlled G42 and operated by OpenAI and Oracle. No sovereign instrument was found directing public capital into AI infrastructure under Emirati operational control. Re-examination condition: a sovereign instrument appropriating public capital to AI compute or AI-specific physical infrastructure under Emirati operational control at nationally transformative scale — for example Stargate UAE passing to Emirati operational control, or an AIATC-directed appropriation with disbursement evidence. Status: Met → Not Met.

Sources: G42 ↗ · SEC Schedule 13D ↗ · CNBC ↗ · US Department of Commerce ↗

▶ 26 August 2026 — 9 changes

26 August 2026

Retired · resolvedTaiwan · Sovereign Investment — the FY2026 central government budget passed its final reading on 14 August 2026 with artificial intelligence and technology allocations intact. The legislative risk this entry tracked did not materialise. Status unchanged: Met.

Source: Focus Taiwan (Central News Agency), 14 August 2026 ↗

RevisedIsrael · Sovereign Investment — entry replaced. The NIS 25 billion appropriation this entry tracked was not adopted at that scale; the government instead approved a National AI Program in June 2026 and launched its implementation plan in August 2026, with a substantially smaller directorate budget. The entry is re-anchored to appropriation of that programme at nationally transformative scale. Trigger replaced · timeline Unknown → 2027+.

Source: Globes, August 2026 ↗

Retired · materialisedIndia · Frontier Models — independent benchmark evaluation of Sarvam-105B, the test this entry was registered to await, took place in August 2026 and confirmed sub-frontier standing. Status unchanged: Not Met.

Sources: Artificial Analysis ↗ · arXiv:2608.11891 ↗

RevisedUnited Kingdom · AI Compute — the planned grid connection for the Nscale Loughton facility will not be ready for the 2027 opening and the alternative hyperscale project is suspended; planning permission is secured and grid energisation is now the sole binding constraint. Probable MET → Possible MET · timeline Q1 2027 → 2027+.

Source: Data Centre Review, July 2026 ↗

RevisedSouth Korea · AI Compute — the national computing programme broke ground in August 2026 with 15,000 GPUs targeted by 2028 and 50,000 by 2030, mapping the 50,000-GPU trigger to the end of the decade. Timeline 2027–2028 → 2028–2030.

Source: Korea.net (Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism), August 2026 ↗

RevisedGermany · Sovereign Investment — entry replaced. The previous trigger bundled sovereign programme scaling with private-sector cloud expansion — the private component cannot satisfy a dimension defined by public capital. The entry is re-anchored to the sovereign pathway: federal appropriation, including Germany's national contribution to the European AI Gigafactory programme. Trigger replaced · timeline unchanged.

Source: Handelsblatt, May 2026 ↗

RevisedFrance · AI Compute — the Mistral Compute facility became operational from end-June 2026; the question the entry tracks — sustained frontier-class training on sovereign infrastructure — is now live. Timeline Q3/Q4 2026 → Q3 2026–2027.

Source: Data Center Dynamics, March 2026 ↗

AddedSaudi Arabia · AI Compute — the HUMAIN programme's twin 100MW campuses in Riyadh and Dammam passed their announced second-quarter 2026 go-live without operational confirmation; frontier-training-scale operation on either campus would open a status change.

Source: Data Center Dynamics ↗

AddedUnited Arab Emirates · AI Compute — Stargate UAE Phase 1, a 200MW Abu Dhabi facility, is targeted for delivery in the third quarter of 2026; operation at that scale would open a status change.

Source: The National, December 2025 ↗

Full analysis and sources for all actors available with subscriber access.

Snapshot History

24 June 2026

Batch 2 cohort extension — six actors assessed June 2026 and appended (Malaysia, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Brazil); register 14 → 20 actorsActive

6 May 2026

Initial register (2026.05.06-001) — Batch 1, 14 actors assessed

Early 2026

Development-phase assessment — methodology design and initial assessment work on the first 14 actors, superseded in full by the published register

SCP Register v1.0 · Assessment: 6 May 2026

Designation scores reflect assessed capabilities at the most recent evaluation date. They are not retrospective assessments of capabilities at the time each event in the database occurred.

Explore the interactive map →Methodology Manual →

MCP reference →llms.txt →

Methodology V1.5 · WEO v1.5.0